Are Trump's Tariff's The End Of Tourism?

Spoiler: It’s not just your ticket price that’s going up.

If you’ve been watching the Trump tariff drama unfold, chances are you’re just as worried as the rest of us. It’s part trade war, part political theatre, part economic migraine. And while it might seem like a war between spreadsheets and shipping lanes, the effects are about to hit much closer to home. Like… your boarding pass.
The short version? Flying might be getting messier, more expensive, and a little less glamorous. And in these stormy skies, the whole tourism industry might take a hit.

Buckle up, because there’s turbulence ahead.

Tariffs and Ticket Prices

Trump’s sweeping tariffs, slapped on nearly everything not labeled “Made in USA”, have sent shockwaves through the world. We’re talking up to 145% tariffs on goods from China, double-digit levies on aircraft parts from Europe and Asia, and a baseline 10% hike on almost everything else.

Now, sure, your plane ticket isn’t directly taxed. But your plane is, and its parts. And dont forget the logistics that keep it flying.
For example, take Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner: its fuselage comes from Italy, its wings from Japan, its doors from France. Every aircraft delivery suddenly costs millions more, and airlines like Delta have already started to delay aircraft deliveries.
Translation: fewer planes, stretched fleets, higher operating costs. Guess who gets to pick up the tab? You, the passenger, in 17B.

Now, these rising prices are probably a short-term thing. Long-term, ticket cost is going to fall again… but that's not exactly a good thing.

The Economy Cabin Recession

Let’s not sugarcoat it. A recession is just around the horizon, and we’re speeding towards one. And it’s going to hit the US the hardest.

Aviation insiders call it “demand destruction.” It sounds clinical, but it’s really simple: prices go up, people stop flying, so prices drop again, but by then, no one’s booking anyway.

That's not all, though. Anti-American sentiment is creeping into tourist hotspots abroad. Travel from Canada is down over 20%, resulting in speculated billions of dollars in lost spending. Germany, Denmark, and the UK are issuing travel warnings, and Barcelona has made headlines for protesting American tourism; they even took to the streets, spraying tourists with water guns.

Between the tariffs, the border drama, and general geopolitical spice, the U.S. is increasingly being seen as expensive, inhospitable, and hard to love. This is not my opinion, just calling it as I see it.

Tourism-based economies, like Vegas and Orlando, will feel the squeeze as international visitors steer clear. Some just can’t afford the now-pricey trip, others simply don’t feel welcome.

Corporate travel is already taking a nosedive. Conferences are shifting abroad. Meetings are moving to Zoom. That means fewer bookings, fewer hotel stays, fewer late-night minibar charges.

Let’s zoom out a little bit. How are the airlines doing?

Premium Flights, Economy Problems

Airlines are continuing to see growth, but it’s slowing down. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines lowered their Q1 outlooks, citing economic uncertainty as one of the reasons.

Low-cost airlines are going to fare better than others, but some of them won't be able to take the losses. They lease planes, run razor-thin margins, and depend on cheap parts. Expect mergers, cutbacks, or worse.

Long-haul airlines are especially vulnerable to. Their lifeblood is business travelers, where the flight makes the most money. If there are no corporate bookings, they’re not making money. If there’s no fancy champagne flowing in the front, economy prices are going to shoot up.

What You Should Expect

Air travel is about to look a lot different. Here’s how:

• Inbound tourism to the U.S. is dropping, especially from Canada, China, and Europe. And it’s not just cost. It’s the optics.
• Outbound U.S. travel might get cheaper thanks to a stronger dollar, but inflation and uncertainty may still keep Americans grounded.
• Destinations like Japan saw record visits from U.S. tourists in 2024. However, tariffs may reverse that trend if prices rise and wallets tighten.
  
• Regional travel is surging, especially in Asia. Intra-Asia tourism is booming, showing that when global travel stumbles, people turn local.

This isn’t the death of travel, but it is a rebalancing. Under Trump 2.0, you can expect there to be a complete overhaul of existing air travel.