The Future of Airline Loyalty Programs

I’ve been playing the points and miles game long enough to remember when status actually meant something, and award redemptions felt like a genuine reward, not some gamified scavenger hunt. But the more I fly, the more it feels like we’re heading toward a future where airline loyalty programs are less about rewarding frequent flyers and more about rewarding big spenders with the right credit cards.

So where exactly are we headed? From what I’ve seen, both in my own travel and the talks across the industry, the writing’s on the wall. The loyalty game is evolving fast.
The question is: can we still win? Is this the golden age of personalization… or the slow death of loyalty?

Let’s take a closer look at the key trends shaping the future of airline programs, and what they really mean for travelers like you and me, the ones who live and breathe points.

Let’s just say it: airlines don’t care how often you fly. They care how much you spend.

Nearly every major program has shifted to revenue-based earning, and even status qualification is now deeply tied to how much you spend. Most major airlines give you miles based on how much you spend, not the actual distance you fly.

We’re going to see more of this, programs rewarding overall spend behavior rather than flying behavior. Book a few pricey international business class tickets a year? Congrats, you’re their dream customer. Fly 100 segments on cheap economy fares? Thanks for your loyalty, but don’t expect much in return.

Delta was very straightforward with their approach when they launched their SkyMiles Medallion Qualifying Dollars (MQDs) system last year, meaning status is only granted specifically based on the amount of money you spend.

This is the part that really stings.

Airline loyalty programs have quietly become some of the most profitable parts of an airline’s business. What started as a way to keep customers coming back has turned into a billion dollar industry, sometimes valued higher than the airlines themselves.

Sure, your SkyMiles are worth something, just not always to you. Co-branded credit card partnerships bring in billions, and loyalty members are treated more like marketing segments than passengers.

These programs generate stable, recurring revenue that’s often more reliable than ticket sales, and investors love that. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers:

If it feels like you’re being nudged to spend more on your co-branded credit card, book hotels through the airline portal, buy status boosts, and accept “personalized” offers, you’re not imagining things, that’s by design. The program is watching you, and it wants you to spend.

And if you think this era is ending soon, you'd be wrong, it's just beginning! 2024 saw the most co-branded credit cards in history, and the most credit card and airline points earned than ever before.

We’ve all screamed into the void about dynamic pricing, and the void screamed back with 300,000-mile domestic business class tickets.

Sure, dynamic pricing can work in your favor on obscure routes or during low-demand windows, but the thrill of the game has changed. You’ve got to be constantly searching, tracking fluctuations, and ready to pounce—it’s basically a part-time job.

That said, there’s still hope. Programs that retain award charts (like Alaska Mileage Plan, for now) may build a cult following just for offering some predictability in an increasingly chaotic space. For savvy travelers, it’s less about luck, and more about knowing the system and striking when the value’s there. But like it or not, these changes are here to stay, because dynamic pricing just makes more sense for airlines, and when I say sense, I mean money.

Remember when Oneworld, Star Alliance, and SkyTeam were the pillars of global travel? That world is quickly unraveling. Emirates and United teaming up? JetBlue trying to go steady with American? It’s chaotic. It’s messy. But honestly, we’re kind of here for it. Because the more partnerships airlines make, the more ways we can use our points. If only every airline were like Air Canada.

Remember when Oneworld, Star Alliance, and SkyTeam were the pillars of global travel? That world is quickly unraveling. Emirates and United teaming up? JetBlue trying to go steady with American? It’s chaotic. It’s messy. But honestly, we’re kind of here for it. Because the more partnerships airlines make, the more ways we can use our points. If only every airline were like Air Canada.

This is where things get interesting, and a little weird.

Airlines are sitting on a goldmine of behavioral data: where you fly, when, what class, which lounges you visit, and exactly how you use your co-branded card. And now, with AI and machine learning in the mix, that data is being weaponized for personalization.

We’re heading into an era of AI-powered loyalty, where two travelers with the exact same elite status might have completely different experiences.
Sometimes, it’s great—a status challenge that actually fits your travel pattern, or tailored perks that feel earned. But let’s be honest: it also feels like loyalty is being replaced by segmentation.

Algorithms are slicing us into micro-groups to maximize yield. Loyalty has evolved, now shaped by the power of data science.

McKinsey's 2023 research backs this up: younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials don’t behave like their predecessors. They shop around and switch brands. They aren’t loyal just because a card says “Gold” on it. Instead, feeling taken care of drives loyalty today. And yes, personalized treatment. It’s less about equal benefits and more about data-driven prioritization.

This can't just be me, but loyalty programs just don’t hit the same anymore.

What used to feel like a game, one you could win with strategy, now feels like a pay-to-play scheme where the rules keep changing, and it's super frustrating. Airlines talk about “enhancing the customer experience,” but in reality, it often means squeezing more revenue out of the same people who used to be rewarded just for showing up and flying often.

There’s a growing disconnect between what airlines think we want and what actually makes us feel loyal. If airlines want to keep people engaged, they’ll need to rethink what loyalty even means. That would mean flexible rewards, smarter personalization, or actual recognition beyond just spend.

Until then, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the golden age of loyalty may be behind us.

There is a clear disparity here.

So, Is It All Doom and Gloom?

Not quite. Loyalty isn’t gone, but it’s definitely changed. The rules we played by five years ago don’t apply anymore, and if you want to “win” at this game now, you’ve got to adapt.

I’m not giving up on airline loyalty just yet, but I’m not going all-in like I used to either. These days, I’m loyal to value, not branding. That's where we all came from, and I believe that’s where more of us are now heading.

The good news? If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead of the curve. The programs are changing, but so are we.